零度棋牌

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                        1. 当前位置:零度棋牌 > 评论 > 正文

                          民生证券李奇霖:稳增长喊了这么久 为何基建不见反弹2015-12-12 10:52:39 | 编辑: | 查看: | 评论:0

                          (BENWENZUOZHEWEIMINSHENGZHENGQUANGUDINGSHOUYIYANJIUFUZERENLIQILIN,SHOUQUANHUAERJIEJIANWENFABIAO;WENZHANGLAIYUANYUWEIXINGONGZHONGZHANGHAO“QILINJINRONGYANJIU”。)

                          零度棋牌ZHANWANGWEILAI,RONGZIPINGTAIZHUANXINGSHIBIRANQUSHI,LIANGJIFENHUADECHUXIANSHIYIDINGDE:CHUNRONGZIPINGTAI、CHUNGONGYIXIANGMUJIANSHEPINGTAIHUIZHUJIANTUICHU,QILISHIZHINENGYOUDIFANGZHENGFUZHAIDAITI;XINZENGDECHENGTOUZHAIWUHUIZHUANXIANGTOUZIYUJINGYINGXINGXIANGMU,YIGONGGONGFUWULINGYUWEIZHU,RUYANGLAO、YILIAO、WENHUA、LVYOUDENG。

                          ZHEIZHONGZHUANBIANDUIWAIBURONGZIDEYILAIHUICUNZAIYIGEQUSHIXINGXIAJIANGDEGUOCHENG,YIGONGGONGFUWULINGYUWEIHEXINDAZAODEXINCHANYELIANSHIQINGZICHANDE(YUGUOQUDICHANQUDONGYANSHENGCHUDEZHONGGONGYECHANYELIANBUTONG),MINGNIANJIJIANTOUZIDAGAILVWEICHIWENERBUQIANGDETAISHI。

                          一、经济企稳非常依赖基建投资

                          零度棋牌QISHIJINNIANYILAI,JIANGUANCENGPINFANHANHUAYAOJIADAWENZENGZHANGLIDU,FAGAIWEITUICHUDEDAXIANGMUBUKEWEIBUDUO,ZHUANXIANGJINRONGZHAIYEYICHUMA,CONGSHUJUKAN,JINRONGSHUJUZAOYIJIANDI,DANJIJIANTOUZIJIUSHIYIZHIBUJIANQISE,2015NIANQUANNIANJIJIANSHIXIAXINGQUSHI。JIUJINQISHUJUKAN,2015NIAN8YUEJIJIANLEIJITONGBIZENGSUCONGSHANGYUE18.1%XIAJIANGZHI17.4%,DANGYUETONGBICONGSHANGYUE14%XIAJIANGZHI12.9%。

                          1

                          WOMENCESUAN,RUGUOANZHAOFANGDICHANTOUZI0%ZENGZHANG、ZHIZAOYETOUZI5%ZENGZHANGHEGUDINGZICHANTOUZIGUIMOZHANGDP 80%DEJIASHE,RUGUOHAIXUWEICHIGDP 7%DEZENGSUXUYAO28%ZUOYOUJIJIANZENGSU,KEJIANJINGJIQIWENHAISHIFEICHANGYILAIJIJIANTOUZIDE。NEIME,JIUJINGSHISHENMEYUANYINDAOZHIJIJIANTOUZIYIZHIBUJIANQIWENNI?

                          二、基建缘何不见企稳?

                          CHENGTOUGONGSIYIZHISHIDIFANGJIJIANWENZENGZHANGDE“MAQIANZU”,WEILEXUNQIUZHEIGEWENTIDEDAAN,WOMENZOUFANGLEBUSHAOCHENGTOUGONGSI,DAOWEIGUANCENGMIANJINXINGLEYIXIEJIAOLIU,ZONGTILAIKANWENZENGZHANGMEIYOUDAIDONGJIJIANDEZHUYAOYUANYINYOUSANGE:

                          SHOUXIAN,JINGUANYINWENZENGZHANGYALISHANGSHENG,QIYEDERONGZIKOUJINGYOUSUOFANGSONG,DANRENGRANZUNXUNLE43HAOWENYAOQIUDEXINZENGCHENGTOUZHAIYUDIFANGZHENGFUXINYONGQIEGE,TOUZIDUANXUYAOXUNZHAOYOUXIANJINLIULAIYUANDEXIANGMU,DANKAOLVDAOFANGJIAXIAXINGZAIJIASHANGZIBENBIANJIHUIBAOLVDIJIAN,YOUHAODEXIANJINLIULAIYUANDEXIANGMUSHIXIQUEDE。

                          2

                          GUOQUCHANGZHAILAIYUANZHUYAOSHITONGGUOTUDIDIYA—JIJIANTOUZI—TUDISHENGZHILAICHANGHAIZHAIWU,DANGFANGDICHAN(YOUQISHISAN、SIXIANCHENGSHI)ZOURUZHANGZHOUQIXIAXING,NEIMEXIANGMUDECHANGZHAILAIYUANSHIBUZUDE。GUOQUYITUDIDIYAWEIHEXINDEQUDONGMOSHIHENRONGYIQIAODONGJIQIANYISHENZHIWANYITOUZIJIHUA,RUGUOGAIMOSHIRUGUOWUFAYANXU,DUIJIJIANTOUZIDEFUMIANYINGXIANGHAISHIBIJIAODADE。

                          QICI,CHENGTOUGONGSITOUZIXIANGMUKAISHIWANGJINGYINGXINGHEGONGGONGFUWUDEQINGZICHANXIANGMUZHUANXING,CHUNRONGZIPINGTAI、CHUNGONGYIXIANGMUJIANSHEPINGTAIHUIZHUJIANTUICHU,QILISHIZHINENGYOUDIFANGZHENGFUZHAIDAITI;YOUXIANJINLIUCHUANGZAONENGLIDECHENGTOUZHUANXIANGTOUZIYUJINGYINGXINGXIANGMU,DANYEBUSHIGUOQUDETIEGONGJIDENGJIJIANTOUZI,ERYIGONGGONGFUWULINGYUWEIZHU,RUYANGLAO、YILIAO、WENHUA、LVYOUDENG。

                          零度棋牌20SHIJI80NIANDAIMODEMEIGUOTONGYANGMIANLINZHIZAOYETOUZIDIMI、SIRENTOUZIZENGSUJIASUXIAHUADEJUMIAN,ZHIZAOYETOUZIZENGSUCONG1979NIANDE13.4%XIAJIANGZHI-4.2%。ZAIZHENGFUFANGKAIGONGGONGFUWULINGYUDESHICHANGHUATOUZIZHIHOU,SIRENZIBENTOURUDAOWEISHENGBAOJIAN、JIAOYUDENGYUDEBILIKAISHITIGAO,WEISHENGBAOJIANFUWUDETOUZIZENGSUZAI1982NIANDADAOLE28%,DANJISHIZHEIYANGDEJIASUTOUZIYEMEIYOUDUIZHENGGESHEHUIDEGUDINGZICHANTOUZICHANSHENGMINGXIANTIZHEN。

                          零度棋牌ZUIHOU,43HAOWENDUIZENGLIANGZHAIWUDEZHILISILUQIANGDIAODESHIPPPMOSHIHEXINZENGDIFANGZHAIXIANEGUANLIDEZHILISILU,XINZENGCHENGTOUZHAIYUDIFANGZHENGFUXINYONGQIEGE,DANSHIJISHANGXINZENGDIFANGZHAIQUANGUIMOBUDA,JINNIANJIN6000YI,ERPPPMOSHITUIJINJIAOMAN,WUFAYUGUOQUZAIYUSUANRUANYUESHUBIYOUXIADECHENGTOUXIANGBI。

                          PPPMOSHITUIJINMANZHUYAOTIXIANZAI:YIFANGMIAN,PPPXIANGMUCUNZAISHIZHI。DUIYUXINTUICHUDEXIANGMU,DIFANGZHENGFUHESHEHUIZIBENXUYAOSHIJIANLUNZHENGCUOSHANG,XIANGMUCONGLIXIANGDAOKAIGONGRENGXUSHIRI。LIRUSHANGHAIJIADINGNANXIANGWUSHUICHULICHANGYIQIGONGCHENGZAI2012NIANJIUKAISHIZHAOBIAOLE,ZHIDAO2014NIAN9YUECAIYUZHONGXINSHUIWUQIANDINGLEPPPXIEYI。LINGYIFANGMIAN,ZAIZHENGFUYUQIYEDEBOYIZHONG,QIYEWANGWANGXIANGDUIRUOSHI,DUANQINEIYEHENNANJIEJUERUHEDIFANGZHENGFUJUECEBIANHUAJISHEHUIZIBENKENENGZAOCHENGDEFENGXIANYIJIRUHEZAIFENGXIANFASHENGSHIBAOZHENGSHEHUIZIBENDEQUANYIDENGWENTI。

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                          三、地方政府职能转变减轻实体对外部融资的依赖

                          YINCI,WENZENGZHANGDUIJIJIANTOUZIZHICHENGLIDUJIANRUODEBEIHOUFANYINGDEQISHISHIDIFANGZHENGFUHEPINGTAIGONGSIZHINENGDEZHUANBIAN:

                          零度棋牌(1)GONGJICHANPINYOUGUOQUDEZHONGJIJIANQINGFUWUZHUANXIANGZENGJIAGONGGONGCHANPIN、GONGGONGFUWU;

                          (2)GONGJITIZHIYOUCHUANTONGDEZHENGFUZHIJIETOUZI,ZHUANWEIZHENGFUYUSHEHUIZIBENHEZUO,ZHENGFUBUMENTUICHUTOURONGZIJUECEGUOCHENG,ERFUYIBIYAODEZHENGCEZHICHI、CAIZHENGJIANGLI,JIFASHEHUIZIBENDEZHUANYEFAHUIHEGAOXIAOYUNYING;

                          (3)ZHENGFUZHINENGYOUGUOQUDETOURONGZIJUECEZHEZHUANWEIFUWUTIGONGJIANGUANZHE,JIANGDIDAODEFENGXIANSUNSHI。

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