零度棋牌

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                    华泰宏观:外需分化掣肘出口 基数效应拉升进口2015-12-12 10:52:40 | 编辑: | 查看: | 评论:0

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                    【HUATAIHONGGUAN】WAIXUFENHUACHEZHOUCHUKOU,JISHUXIAOYINGLASHENGJINKOU——DIANPING11YUEJINCHUKOUSHUJU

                    零度棋牌ZHANGJING HOUJINGYU HUATAIHONGGUANYANJIU

                    外部景气继续分化,11月出口同比与上月持平

                    零度棋牌11YUECHUKOUTONGBIJIANG3.7%,QIANZHIJIANG3.6%。SANJIDUMEIGUO、OUYUANQUHERIBENGDPZENGZHANGJUNWEIKEGUAN,DANJINLIANGYUESANDIQUJINGQICHUXIANYIDINGFENHUA。CONGXIANXINGZHIBIAOKAN,11YUEMEIGUOPMIDAJIANG1.5ZHI48.6,SHI6YUEJIANDINGHOUDIWUGEYUELIANXUHUILUO,DANJINKOUFENXIANGSUIYOUSHANGSHENG,DANRENGDIYU50;EROUYUANQUPMISHENG0.5ZHI52.8,RIBENPMISHENG0.2ZHI52.6。SANDIDOUSHIWOGUOZHONGYAODECHUKOUMUDEDI,DANMEIGUOJINGQIHUILUODUICHUKOUDETUOLEISICHAOGUOOURIJINGQIXIANGHAODEGONGXIAN。WOMENRENWEIZHEIBUFENSHIYOUYUOURIDOUCHUYULIANGKUANMOSHI,JINGJIZHUANHAOBUDAIBIAODUIWAIBUDEXUQIUZOUQIANG。

                    中西部地区出口存在后发优势

                    ZAICHUKOUCHIXURUOSHIDEJUMIANXIA,QIJIEGOUYEZAIBIANHUAZHIZHONG。JINNIANYILAICONGMAOYIFANGSHIKAN,YIBANMAOYIQIANGYUJIAGONGMAOYI;CONGCHANPINZHONGLEIKAN,JISHUHANLIANGJIAOGAODECHANPINRUDIANHUAJI、YINSHUADIANLU、JICHENGDIANLU、SHOUBIAODENGQIANGYUDIJICHANPIN;ERCONGCHUKOUQIYEJINGYINGDIQULAIKAN,BUFENZHONGXIBUDIQUQIANGYUDONGBUDIQU。1-10YUE,QINGHAISHENGCHUKOUTONGBIZENG59%,HENAN(17%)、HUBEI(14%)、GUANGXI(14%)、SHANXI(12%)、NEIMENG(5%)、HUNAN(4%)JUNYOUXIANGDANGZENGZHANG。ERDONGBUDIQUCHUFUJIAN(2%)HEZHEJIANG(1%)WAIJUNWEIFUZENGZHANG。ZHEIBIAOMINGZHONGXIBUDIQUSUIZHEJINGJI、JIJIANFAZHAN,YIJILAODONGLICHENGBENYOUSHI,ZAICHUKOUFANGMIANRENGYOUXIANGDANGQIANLI。

                    基数效应主导进口,11月进口显著好于前值

                    11YUEJINKOUTONGBIJIANG5.6%,QIANZHIJIANG16.0%。JINNIANYILAIJINKOUZAIDAZONGSHANGPINJIAGEZOUDIHENEIXUBUZHENSHUANGZHONGDAYAXIA,YUEDU15%ZUOYOUDEJIANGFUJINGYICHENGWEICHANGTAI。BENYUEJINKOUTONGBIDAFUHAOYUQIANYUE,QIZHONGYOUYIDINGWENZENGZHANGZHENGCEDEDAIDONG,DANZHUYAOSHIJISHUCHAYISUOZHI。CONGJINKOUJIAGEZHISHUKAN,JINKOUFUZENGZHANGYOULIUCHENGSHIYOUYUJINKOUSHANGPINJIAGEZOUDISUOZHI,CHUNCUIDESHULIANGJIANSHAODUIFUZENGZHANGGONGXIANZAISICHENG。

                    贸易顺差对汇率有一定支撑作用

                    11YUEMAOYISHUNCHA3431YIYUAN,JIAOQIANYUEZAIDUKUODA2%。YOUYUJINKOUDIELUOFUDUYUANCHAOCHUKOU,JINNIANYILAIWAIMAOYUECHUXIANCHIXUDESHUAITUIXINGSHUNCHA,ZHEIYIMOSHIYEZAIRIBEN、HANGUOCHUXIAN。GAOMAOYISHUNCHAJIYOUYUANCAILIAOJIAGEZOUDIDEYINSU,YEFANYINGLENEIBUXUQIURUOYUWAIBUXUQIUDEXIANZHUANG。ZAIHUILVFANGMIAN,GAOSHUNCHAXIANGDANGYUWAIHUICHUBEIDEZENGJIA,DUIZHICHENGHUILVFANDAOYOUHAOCHU,DANZAIZHONGMEIHUOBIZHENGCEBEIDAOERCHIDEQINGKUANGXIA,ZHEIZHISHICIYAODEYINSU。

                    四季度出口强于三季度,但进口转好的持续性存疑

                    SHANGYUE25RIHAIGUANZONGSHUYOUFABULE《HAIGUANZONGSHUJINYIBUCUJINWAIMAOWENDINGZENGZHANGRUOGANCUOSHI》,NEIRONGSHEJIGAIJINTONGGUANJIANGUANFUWU、TUIDONGJIAGONGMAOYICHUANGXINFAZHAN、JINYIBUQINGLIHEGUIFANJINCHUKOUHUANJIESHOUFEIYIJIZUOHAOHAIGUANTONGJI、DASI、GUOJIHEZUOGONGZUO。ZHEIXIEZHENGCEZAITIZHENDUANQIWAIMAOFANGMIANLIDUYOUXIAN,DANDUIYUGUIFANWAIMAOZHIDUNAIZHISHIYINGLEISITPPDEDUOBIANSHENDUKAIFANGYOUJIJIYIYI。JINNIANYILAIWENWAIMAOZHENGCEBUDUAN,DANDOUBUSHEJIDAOHUILV。11YUEWAICHUZAIDUZHUANWEIXIAJIANG870YIYUAN,XIANSHIRENMINBIBIANZHIYALIRENGZAICHIXUYUNNIANG。SUIRANCONGJINGQISHUJUKAN,MEIGUOQIYEHUODONGZAIJIAXIQIANXIYUEFABAOSHOU,DANQIANGJINGDEFEINONGSHUJUHUOYISHILIANCHUXIADINGJUEXINQIDONGJIAXI。WOMENYUJILIANCHU2016NIANHAIHUIJIAXI2-3CI,RENMINBIHUILVRENGJIANGZAIYANGXINGDEYINDAOXIAHUANFUZOUBIAN。ZONGTILAIKANSIJIDUCHUKOUQIANGYUSANJIDU,DANJINKOUZHUANHAODECHIXUXINGCUNYI。

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